Be wrong in Probability Like a Pro
Posted: | Tags: cognitive bias, probability
In her book “Randomness,” Deborah Bennett presents an example that illustrates how bad we are at calculating probabilities, even highly trained professionals. A group of doctors received this question: The test of a disease has a 5% false positive rate. The disease affects 1 in 1000 people in the population. People are tested randomly, whether they are suspected to be sick or not. A particular patient’s test is positive. What is the probability that this patient actually has the disease? Read more...